Medical Trend Is Slowing, So Why Is Stop-Loss Still Under Pressure?

After several years of double-digit healthcare inflation, there’s finally some encouraging news from Aon’s latest Global Medical Trend Rate Report, which projects worldwide medical costs will increase 9.8% in 2026, which is the first time in three years the global trend increase has fallen below 10%.

At first glance, that sounds like welcome relief for employers. But for brokers working with self-funded groups, the stop-loss market is telling a different story.

While overall healthcare inflation may be showing signs of moderation, stop-loss carriers continue to face mounting pressure from catastrophic claims, specialty medications, and an increasing frequency of high-dollar claimants. The result? Employers may not experience the stop-loss relief they expect.

Why the Disconnect?

Traditional trend measures capture broad healthcare spending across large populations. Stop-loss, however, is disproportionately impacted by the most severe and expensive claims.

According to Aon’s 2026 Medical Market Report:

• Stop-loss loss ratios exceeded 90% in 2025. ¹

• Claims exceeding $500,000 nearly doubled between 2017 and 2024. ²

• Claims exceeding $10 million are becoming increasingly common. ³

• Gene therapies, specialty drugs, neonatal care, oncology treatments, and transplants continue to drive catastrophic claim costs. ⁴

In other words, average healthcare trend may be easing, but excess-loss exposure continues to accelerate.

What Brokers Should Be Watching

1. Underwriting Discipline Is Returning

Carriers are increasingly focused on restoring profitability through pricing discipline and tighter underwriting.

2. Large Claims Are Becoming More Common

Frequency, not just severity, is now a major concern. More employers are experiencing catastrophic claimants than ever before.

3. Reinsurance Markets Are Adjusting

Recent reinsurer exits have increased selectivity throughout the market, even though overall capacity remains available.

Blueprint Takeaway

A decline in medical trend is certainly positive news, but brokers should avoid assuming that lower healthcare inflation automatically translates into softer stop-loss renewals.

Today’s stop-loss market is being shaped less by average claims and more by catastrophic ones.

For self-funded employers, the question is no longer whether high-cost claims will occur. It’s whether their stop-loss strategy is prepared when they do.

RMTS remains committed to helping organizations build more resilient, predictable, and financially secure health plans.